Rafal: COVID-19 deaths surpass combat losses from 9 wars combined; cases spiking

In just over 3 months, COVID-19 has killed over 128,000 Americans, which is more than were killed in combat in the Vietnam War, Korean War, Gulf War, Iraq War, War in Afghanistan, Revolutionary War, War of 1812, Mexican-American War, and Spanish-American War — COMBINED.

This is from a novel virus that didn’t exist a year ago.

But some of our fellow Georgians are saying that it’s time for Georgia to fully reopen. They say that those who are concerned about the COVID-19 pandemic are making a mountain out of a molehill. As a result, many people are not wearing masks or maintaining social distancing when out in public. Unfortunately, the data paints a very different picture of our situation. 

If preventative measures aren’t taken soon, this pandemic might spiral completely out of control.

We may be fast approaching the time in Georgia where we will be forced to slow down or even reverse our reopening plans, as has already happened in Texas, Florida, and California.

Georgia began to reopen its economy on April 24 even though it did not meet the CDC guidelines of a 14-day downward trajectory of documented cases. Two months later, how is Georgia doing now?

The Georgia Department of Public Health uses a 7-day rolling average, which does a better job of showing trends than simply graphing the daily case numbers, since it smooths out potential outliers. Before re-opening, ideally, we would have seen a downward trajectory in the 7-day rolling average and then a flattened curve at a very low rate of new infections. 

That’s not at all what happened.

Instead we had an extended high rate of infection, followed by an alarming spike over the last 3 weeks of June. Looking at the data for the three-week period beginning June 10 and ending June 30, 2020, we can see why some people are sounding the alarm.

According to the Georgia Department of Public Health, on June 10 we had a 7-day rolling average of 727 newly reported cases. Over the next 21 days, there were 19 days where the rolling average went up, including the last 12 days in a row.

On June 30 the 7-day rolling average for new COVID 19 cases was 1945. 

Alarmingly, the rate of increase in the 7-day rolling average is increasing at a higher rate each week:

In the first week, the daily average increase was 16.1 cases,
By the second week it was 56.4 cases,
And in the third week it was 102.4 cases.

Prior to the April 24 partial reopening, the record for a 7-day rolling average of new COVID-19 cases was set on April 13 at 866. That was partly due to the one-day record for new cases set a few days earlier on April 7 of 1,598. What is noteworthy here is that the peak of 1,598 was an aberration. The days on each side of it were not even close to that number. The 7-day rolling average on that day was 720.

However, the current record set on June 30 of 2,225 new cases was not an aberration and coincides with the 7-day rolling average of 1,945.

Supporters of the early reopening are claiming that the rise in cases is simply because we are testing more people. It’s true that we’re running more tests, but infectious disease experts believe that we’re not testing nearly enough. Why do they think that? One reason is that while we’re testing more people, the percentage of people testing positive is rising. Additionally, epidemiologists are clear that it is critical to identify those who are infected, so that they don’t transmit the disease to others. 

A clearer picture is drawn when you look at the COVID-19 hospitalization rate, which is also shown using a 7-day rolling average.

Over that same three-week period, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have gone up for 20 consecutive days. The hospitalizations are also increasing at a higher rate each week. In the first week, the average increase was 4.9 hospitalizations per day. By the second week, it was 16.9 hospitalizations per day, and in the third week it increased by an alarming 40.2 hospitalizations per day.

This comes as over 2,800 Georgians have already lost their lives to this pandemic. 

One statistic worth noting is that the 7-day rolling average for new deaths in Georgia on June 8 was 17. It rose to 41 by June 15 then fell to 17 again by June 30. This could be good news and indicate that some new treatments are working, or that people are seeking help sooner due to the better availability of testing, or even that the reopening is proceeding appropriately. It’s too early to tell, but we do know that a large number of new infections could lead to more people being hospitalized. That could lead to more people dying if, or when, our hospitals become overwhelmed. 

We need to keep tracking these data to inform our decisions going forward, both in terms of reopening the economy and how we act as individuals within it. 

Right now, the data are sounding alarm bells. To be clear, it’s more like an air raid siren. We should strongly consider slowing down or reversing the reopening, avoiding indoor gatherings, wearing masks in public and following all other CDC guidelines.

Data Tables

New COVID-19 Cases in Georgia

Date	7-Day Rolling Average	New Cases Reported	Change in 7-Day Rolling Average	Average Daily Increase by Week
June 10	727	731	7
June 11	732	993	5
June 12	737	810	5
June 13	777	1018	40
June 14	826	880	49
June 15	845	733	19
June 16	833	664	-12	16.1
June 17	864	952	31
June 18	848	882	-16
June 19	889	1097	41
June 20	1001	1800	112
June 21	1003	892	2
June 22	1073	1227	70
June 23	1228	1747	155	56.4
June 24	1336	1706	108
June 25	1455	1714	119
June 26	1569	1900	114
June 27	1597	1990	28
June 28	1787	2225	190
June 29	1927	2207	140
June 30	1975	1874	48	106.7

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Georgia

Date	7-Day Rolling Average	Change in 7-Day Rolling Average	Average Daily Increase by Week
June 10	805	0
June 11	810	5
June 12	817	7
June 13	820	3
June 14	827	7
June 15	833	6
June 16	839	6	4.9
June 17	848	9
June 18	860	12
June 19	874	14
June 20	893	19
June 21	912	19
June 22	931	19
June 23	957	26	16.9
June 24	992	35
June 25	1022	30
June 26	1058	36
June 27	1091	33
June 28	1130	39
June 29	1182	52
June 30	1239	57	40.3

CDC guidelines recommend that we:

1. Wear a cloth face-covering when out in public.
2. Stay 6 feet apart when in public.
3. Wash our hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, or use hand sanitizer when soap and water are not available.
4. Clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces.
5. Monitor our health daily.

Stay safe, everyone!