GOP-proposed commission districts would alter Athens’ political landscape

The proposed new commission district 1 takes the southern portion of the current district 1 (Barnett Shoals Road, Old Lexington Road, Whitehall Road) and combines it with the eastern portion of the current district 8 (most notably, the Cedar Creek neighborhood). 

These changes, while significant, may not have drastic political effects since they do allow Commissioner Patrick Davenport to run for re-election. The current district 1 is one of Athens’ more conservative districts, even if it is majority Democratic. The new district would probably be similar.

Perhaps the most disruptive political aspect of this new map is the removal of Winterville and surrounding areas. Davenport had gone out of his way in recent years to build bridges with constituents in the city of Winterville, but now they’ll have someone else as commissioner.

There does not appear to be any cohesive community of interest represented by this proposed new map, at least from my limited understanding of the area.

The political implications here are massive. Nevertheless, these changes wouldn’t be as concerning if it was still called district 3. The new district would retain the high-turnout, white neighborhoods of Boulevard and Cobbham and would still be connected to part of the historically Black neighborhood surrounding West Hancock avenue from the current district 3. In the new map, these areas would also be connected to Pulaski Street and a gentrifying neighborhoods in East Athens (First through Fourth Streets and surrounding areas), which currently belong to districts 9 and 2. 

The new district would be even more progressive than the current district 3, if that’s possible, but beyond that the major effect here stems solely from the renumbering of the district. That, by itself, prevents Commissioner Melissa Link from running for re-election. Even-numbered districts aren’t up in this cycle, so if the state legislature approves the map and changes the district number from three to two in the process, Link will be removed from office.

Another effect of this new map would be to disenfranchise of some of the highest turnout neighborhoods in Athens, who wouldn’t be able to vote for commissioner in this year’s local election. Without their voices, the commission will likely move rightward in the short-term.

The new district 3 is essentially the current district 2 (East Athens) combined with the northern end of current district 1 (Winterville).

This plan splits the historically Black East Athens neighborhoods into different districts, which some may find concerning. It might also be illegal. This has been, at least until recently, a discrete community of interest that should not be split according to redistricting law, although gentrification has admittedly caused significant changes to the area.

The seriousness of splitting this community of interest is perhaps debatable. What’s not debatable is that this map has no relation at all to the current district 3. There is no overlap whatsoever. No justification was given for the number change in the Republican press release.

No sitting commissioner lives within this district right now, making it an open seat if these maps are approved by the legislature. The addition of parts of district 1 will probably nudge this district rightward from the old district 2; moderate candidates will probably do well here.

The district containing UGA expands northward in the new map, crossing the mythical “khaki line” to swallow downtown and the neighborhood along West Hancock Avenue east of Milledge Avenue. Wait… that sounds about right, actually.

This district retains enough of Five Points to allow Commissioner Allison Wright to run for re-election in 2024, but otherwise it primarily consists of very low-turnout, student-heavy areas held by current districts 3 and 7. The major political effect of this new map will be that, if approved, the winning candidate will almost definitely have to succeed in Wright’s own neighborhood, a difficult feat for a challenger. Although the population exists in the rest of this district to overwhelm the votes of Wright’s neighbors several times over, mobilizing them would be a challenge as UGA students generally do not vote in local elections.

This commission district, which already has one of the lowest voter turnouts in Athens, will likely see its turnout sink even lower as a result of these changes. The new map also splits the historically Black West Hancock neighborhood, although like East Athens, it has seen a large degree of gentrification recently.

The new district 5 is a collection of bits from current districts 3, 5 and 6. It includes the Country Club Estates neighborhood, currently in district 3; the Homewood Hills neighborhood, currently in district 5; and the Forest Heights neighborhood, currently in district 6. By excluding Normaltown, the new district 5 will likely be more conservative than it is currently, although progressive candidates should still be competitive here.

The most important change for residents of the current district 5 is that their commissioner, Commissioner Tim Denson, is drawn out of this map by a few hundred yards. That prevents him from running for reelection in this cycle.

District 6, encompassing west Athens, will grow more conservative as a result of the changes being proposed since it loses the Forest Heights neighborhood. That’s bad news for Commissioner Jesse Houle, who got many of their votes from that neighborhood in the last election.

On the other hand, the district becomes one of three majority-minority districts in the legislature’s plan (considering only those 18 or older). It accomplishes this by adding the neighborhoods off Lavender Road, which have a large African-American population. However, in practice it’s likely that the wealthier, white neighborhoods elsewhere in the district will continue to dominate vote counts during May local elections, which have notoriously low voter turnout.

The conservative bent of some of the high voter turnout neighborhoods in this district paves the way for a conservative Democrat or even a Republican to potentially win here.

What is called district 7 in the new proposal is essentially the current district 10, minus the neighborhood surrounding West Rutherford Street where Commissioner Mike Hamby lives. It also picks up some UGA student neighborhoods on South Milledge.

The changes here are minor, but the political fallout is immense. That’s all because it is being renumbered – district 10 will be called district 7 if this proposal is implemented. That removes Commissioner Russell Edwards from his political home in the current district 7 and places him in the new district 10 with Hamby. As such, Edwards will be prevented from running for reelection and will be removed from office.

If this proposal is implemented, the so-called district 7 will be in search of a new commissioner on a very short timetable before qualifying for the local elections happens in March.

In this proposal, district 8 loses the Cedar Creek neighborhood, most of Cedar Shoals Drive and everything east of Whit Davis Road. In exchange, it gains some apartments off Barnett Shoals Road by the loop. This should cause turnout in the district to dip slightly, but probably won’t have much political impact. Commissioner Carol Myers will continue to do well here with or without these changes. However, the confusion that may be caused by suddenly putting so many voters in another commission district should not be underestimated.

District 9 will lose the Pulaski Street area while gaining the 441 corridor if this proposal goes into effect. That will cause the district to shift rightward, making it very comfortable for a moderate Black Democrat like Commissioner Ovita Thornton. Potential challengers beware! Thornton seems guaranteed to get at least 60% of the vote in this district. 

Conservative Democrats or even Republicans could do well here in the future, once Thornton decides to retire from politics. But with these changes, she’ll represent this district as long as she wants. Simply put, she’s unbeatable here.

This proposed district 10 has no similarity to any existing district. Instead, it embodies the “City of Five Points” idea as a commission district. The Five Points area, with the exception of Wright’s neighborhood, had previously been scattered into districts 4, 7 and 10, but now would be combined into one district if this proposal is implemented.

It’s the perfect political home for a white moderate or conservative like Commissioner Mike Hamby. It will provide him an excellent fundraising base while being compact and easy to canvas. Furthermore, it allows Hamby to shift his focus as commissioner. In the current district 10, Hamby’s focus had to be on the Timothy Road area, but now, he’ll be free to solely represent his own neighborhood and surrounding areas.